Appendix A – Risk and demand analysis
Contents
Data Analysis for Service Review 2026
Comparison Against Existing FDC Stations
Dataset taken from 01/01/23 – 31/12/25
This dataset was agreed as it gives a large enough sample for a relevant average.
All figures given are an average per year based on this dataset.
Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service (LFRS) carry out multiple processes to ensure that resources are allocated according to risk, this includes updating the Strategic Assessment of Risk, the Fire Risk Map, Community Risk Management Plan (CRMP), carrying out Emergency Cover and wider Service Reviews. All our resources are available to respond county wide, over the border and nationally, although on a day-to-day basis are strategically located based on risk across Lancashire.
Critical (life risk) incidents are split between Critical Fire, and Critical Special Service Calls. LFRS prioritises Critical Fire incidents and sets some of the most ambitious response standards across the UK for these incidents.
LFRS currently operates four crewing systems-
Permanently crewed by four watches of six firefighters on one pump stations and twelve firefighters on two pump stations, providing an immediate response to emergency calls at any time of day.
Another wholetime duty system providing an immediate response at all times of day, with a slight delay at night due to responding from purpose-built accommodation on the site of the fire station. DCP operates a single watch of 12 firefighters who cover multiple days at a time, providing positive hours 08:00-20:00 and emergency cover from 20:00-08:00.
A hybrid system where a single watch of 12 wholetime firefighters provide an immediate response from 08:00-18:00, and a guaranteed On-Call response between 18:00-08:00 from their nearby home address (within 5 minutes of the fire station).
On Call firefighters provide cover around their primary employment, responding to the fire station where there is an emergency call. The firefighters live or work, generally within 5 minutes of the fire station.
Across Lancashire there is a population density of 522 people per km2. England’s average is 450 people per km2. Wyre district is 397 people per km2. For comparison, Blackpool District is 4,041 people per km2 and Rossendale District is 513 people per km2 (ONS, Census 2021 Data).


These two Census maps clearly show the concentration of population density within Fleetwood town. Note that the density figures above refer to the whole district rather than the individual Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA’s).

The following maps show the overlay of our LSOA fire risk map and turnout area from home stations; this is dependent on duty systems and time of day.
Travel times shown in the following isochrones include call handling time at North West Fire Control (NWFC) (average of 70 seconds), and reaction time of firefighters on station to book mobile to incident (generally around 60 seconds).
Our current response standards to a critical fire incident in a Very High Risk LSOA is six minutes, or 360 seconds.
|
LSOA Risk Map 2025 |
Fleetwood wholetime High Risk (8 minutes from time of call) turnout area |
|
|
|
|
Shading |
Risk |
Response Time |
|
Red (NA) |
Very High |
6 minutes |
|
Yellow |
High |
8 minutes |
|
Blue |
Medium |
10 minutes |
|
Unshaded |
Low |
12 minutes |
The map above shows the turnout area achievable by Wholetime crews from Fleetwood in eight minutes, which is our response standard for high risk areas (there are no very high risk areas in Fleetwood).
Fleetwood comfortably achieves the required attendance time for the one high risk LSOA in their area, which is in close proximity to the fire station.
The following maps confirm that a FDC unit based at Fleetwood would still be able to meet response standards to critical fire incidents at all times of the day, including when responding from their home address when on their ‘on-call’ element of their contract between 18:00 – 08:00.


Fleetwood response is represented by an orange
overlay:
|
OC High Risk Response 8 Minutes |
OC Medium Risk Response 10 Minutes |
OC Low Risk Response 12 Minutes |
|
|
|
|
Bispham fire station’s response is shown in the light blue overlay:
Fleetwood and
Bispham’s turnout areas start to over-cross at around
10-minute response times, due to the close proximity of the fire
stations, thereby providing a very high level of community
resilience across the northern area of the Fylde coast. Fleetwood
and Bispham are approximately 5 miles apart, with excellent and
fast road network connection via the Broadway (A587) and Promenade
(A584).
Fleetwood station area has an average of 636 incidents per year within their designated nominal station area, the lowest of any of Lancashire’s wholetime (2/2/4) crewed stations. In comparison, Fulwood, currently a Flexi Day Crewed (FDC) station, receives an average of 806 incidents in its area annually.

For comparison, Fleetwood has been shown below with the existing FDC stations.

In Fleetwood area, there are, on average 44 critical fire incidents per year, a slightly higher number than Skelmersdale, though substantially lower than Leyland (which is flexi-day crewed) at 82. The average number of critical fire incidents across FDC station areas is 36.

For comparison, Fleetwood has been shown below with the existing FDC stations.

Fleetwood station (both Wholetime and On Call appliances collectively) are mobilised, on average, 832 times per year. This makes Fleetwood the least utilised wholetime (2/2/4) pump, and its activity levels place it firmly alongside other FDC and DCP stations, as highlighted below.
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l 2/2/4 l DCP l
FDC l On Call

Lancashire currently has five FDC stations and six stations with one wholetime pump, the overall activity levels of the crewed pumps at each of these stations are placed in descending order below. Fleetwood has markedly lower activity levels than other one pump stations and fewer mobilisations than two other FDC stations.
|
Average Mobilisations per Year by Pump |
|||||
|
Crewing |
Station |
Callsign |
Mobilised |
Attended |
% Att. |
|
WT |
Hyndburn |
L70P1 |
1467 |
1268 |
86% |
|
WT |
Lancaster |
L11P1 |
1259 |
1109 |
88% |
|
WT |
South Shore |
L37P1 |
1146 |
1027 |
90% |
|
WT |
Morecambe |
L12P1 |
1022 |
898 |
88% |
|
FDC |
Fulwood |
L52P1 |
970 |
805 |
83% |
|
FDC |
Leyland |
L55P1 |
855 |
719 |
84% |
|
WT |
Skelmersdale |
L56P1 |
843 |
703 |
83% |
|
WT |
Fleetwood |
L32P1 |
702 |
651 |
93% |
|
FDC |
Ormskirk |
L51P1 |
651 |
554 |
85% |
|
FDC |
St. Annes |
L36P1 |
597 |
536 |
90% |
|
FDC |
Bacup |
L73P1 |
392 |
350 |
89% |
Mobilisations by Pump
Pump mobilisations from all crewing types are shown below. Fleetwood L32P1 has been highlighted. L32P1 is the least utilised wholetime 2/2/4 pump and has less mobilisations than eight FDC and DCP pumps.
![]()
![]()
l 2/2/4 l DCP l
FDC l On Call


Having determined that the overall mobilisations of Fleetwood (W32) place it within the activity levels of other FDC pumps, the impact of FDC crewing is further assessed below.

*CF means critical fires
FDC respond from the fire station between 08:00 and 18:00, then as an On Call unit between 18:00 and 08:00. As the graph above shows, incident activity peaks at 18:00 and then quickly drops to a low baseline which it maintains until 08:00. The majority of incidents are therefore during crewed hours. The low numbers of critical fires follow a similar pattern, but peak at 20:00.
As they are subjective and open to interpretation, “precautionary check” and “first aid at scene” have been removed from the following charts to focus on fire related hospitalisations and fatalities.
Fleetwood receives markedly fewer serious fire casualties than other 2/2/4 crewed stations.

Compared against existing FDC stations, Fleetwood has similar casualty numbers to Fulwood and Bacup.
